Analysis of Supply and Demand Situation of China's Agricultural Products in December 2023

2023-12-08 来源: 农业农村部市场预警专家委员会 

2023-12-08 Source: Expert Committee on Market Early Warning, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

 玉米：本月对 2023/24 年度中国玉米供需形势预测与上月保持一致。11 月 下旬玉米上市量明显增加，价格有所下行。今年玉米增产较多，售粮进度预期 较常年偏慢，近期进口明显增加，而下游消费需求增量有限，价格缺乏上涨动 力。气象部门预计今年冬季，东北大部地区可能出现阶段性强降温、强降雪天 气，或影响后期玉米购销，建议农户把握好售粮时机。 

 Corn: This month's forecast for China's corn supply/demand situation in 2023/24 remains consistent with last month's. Corn listings increased significantly in late November and prices moved lower. This year's high increase in maize production is expected to result in a slower-than-usual pace of grain sales, a marked increase in imports recently, and limited incremental downstream consumer demand, resulting in a lack of upward momentum in prices. The meteorological department expects that this winter, most of the Northeast region may have a stage of strong cooling, strong snowfall weather, or affect the late corn purchase and marketing, suggesting that farmers grasp the timing of grain sales!

 大豆：本月估计，2022/23 年度国内大豆压榨量 9593 万吨，较上月下调 92 万吨，主要因豆粕消费需求不及预期。2023/24 年度，国产大豆增产，黑龙江 多地大豆种植户已收到生产者补贴，部分农户持豆惜售，东北产区多轮降雪阻 碍大豆流通，市场需求保持稳定。国际市场方面，受厄尔尼诺事件影响，巴西 北旱南涝，大豆产量可能低于此前预期，阿根廷大豆产区墒情好于常年，天气 条件对作物整体有利，预计大豆产量将显著回升。总体看全球大豆供给仍较宽松。

Soybeans: It is estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume in 2022/23 will be 95.93 million tonnes, a downward adjustment of 0.92 million tonnes compared with the previous month, mainly due to the less-than-expected consumption demand for soybean meal. 2023/24, domestic soybean production has increased, and soybean farmers in Heilongjiang have received producer subsidies, and some of them are holding on to their soybeans for sale, while several rounds of snowfalls in northeastern producing areas have blocked the flow of soybeans, and the demand for the market has remained stable. In the international market, affected by the El Niño event, Brazil, drought in the north and flooding in the south, soybean production may be lower than previously expected, Argentina's soybean production area moisture is better than normal, the weather conditions are favourable to the crop as a whole, soybean production is expected to rebound significantly. Overall global soybean supply is still loose.  

 棉花：本月对 2023/24 年度中国棉花供需形势预测与上月保持一致。新棉 采摘基本完成，皮棉销售较为缓慢，据国家棉花市场监测系统数据，截至 11 月 30 日，全国皮棉销售率 6.7%，同比下降 1.4 个百分点，较过去四年均值下降 9.0 个百分点。纺企新增订单不足，库存去化较为缓慢，开机率有所下降。后 期节日消费或对需求有一定提振作用。 

 Cotton: This month's forecast for China's cotton supply and demand situation in 2023/24 is consistent with that of last month. New cotton picking was basically completed, and lint sales were slow. According to the State Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of 30 November, the national lint sales rate was 6.7 per cent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a decrease of 9.0 percentage points compared with the average of the past four years. New orders from spinning enterprises were insufficient, inventory depletion was slow, and the start-up rate declined. Future holiday consumption may have a certain boost to demand. 

 食用植物油：本月预测，2023/24 年度，中国食用植物油产量 3047 万吨， 与上月预测值一致。据气象监测，冬油菜播种以来产区大部光热充足，农田土 壤墒情适宜，气象条件总体利于油菜播种出苗、移栽成活。截至 11 月底，全国 多数产区油菜发育期接近常年同期或偏早。2023/24 年度，中国食用植物油进 口量、消费量均与上月预测值一致。全球油籽供给延续宽松格局，食用植物油 需求恢复仍面临不确定因素，受价格传导影响，预计 2023/24 年度国内食用植 物油价格波动性加强。 

 Edible Vegetable Oil: According to this month's forecast, China will produce 30.47 million tonnes of edible vegetable oil in 2023/24, which is in line with last month's forecast. According to meteorological monitoring, since the sowing of winter oilseed rape, most of the producing areas have had sufficient light and heat, and the moisture content of farmland soil is suitable, so the meteorological conditions are generally conducive to the emergence of oilseed rape seedlings and the survival of transplanting. By the end of November, the development period of rapeseed in most of the producing areas was close to the same period of normal year or earlier. 2023/24, China's import and consumption of edible vegetable oil were in line with last month's forecast. The global oilseed supply continues to be loose, the recovery of edible vegetable oil demand still faces uncertainties, and the volatility of domestic edible vegetable oil prices is expected to increase in 2023/24 due to the influence of price transmission. 

 食糖：本月对 2023/24 年度预测数据不作调整。当前，甜菜糖生产进入后 期，甘蔗糖厂陆续开榨。11 月份，广西大部地区天气晴好，温差逐步增大，有 利于甘蔗糖分积累，缓解前期糖分偏低的问题。新糖批量上市，国内食糖价格 偏弱，市场观望氛围较浓，下游采购以刚需为主，后期需关注元旦、春节备货 情况。国际方面，巴西、印度产糖量高于此前预期，12 月以来国际食糖价格大 幅下跌，但仍在预测范围内，后期需关注巴西食糖出口进度，印度、泰国食糖 产量及出口政策变化情况.

 Sugar: There will be no adjustment to the 2023/24 forecast this month. Currently, beet sugar production has entered the latter part of the period, and sugar cane sugar mills have started crushing one after another. in November, the weather in most areas of Guangxi was sunny, and the temperature difference gradually increased, which was conducive to the accumulation of sugar cane sugar and alleviated the problem of low sugar content in the previous period. New sugar batch listing, domestic sugar prices are weak, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, downstream purchasing to just demand-based, later need to pay attention to the New Year's Day, the Spring Festival stocking situation. Internationally, Brazil, India sugar production is higher than previously expected, since December international sugar prices fell sharply, but still within the forecast range, the later need to pay attention to the progress of Brazilian sugar exports, sugar production in India, Thailand and changes in export policies.

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